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Bertram31.com General Bulletin Board
H Wilma *LINK* *PIC*
Posted By: Capt Patrick McCrary
Date: Saturday, 22 October 2005, at 8:06 a.m.
Wilma will start to interact with the high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico later today or this evening and exit the Yucatan into open water.
Following the HP rigde, the confidence in a northeastly track is now very high, bringing about a landfal in southwest FL Monday morning and crossing the state into the Atlantic without much change in the NE track Monday evening.
At this time the landfall looks like it will be between Ft Meyers, Naples and Marco Island. Exit point looks to be between West Palm Beach, Ft Pierce, and Coco Beach.
Models are not in good agreement on intensity after 36 hours. There will be some potential for strengthing due to water temperatures in the Gulf, but significant shearing can take place from the Westerlies. It seems that landfall at as a Cat2 is likely, with a potential of a Cat3 evident.
Because of the predicted fast move across the state, Wilma will retain much her strength through the exit point, dropping in intensity by less than 15 kts.
The principle strom surge will occur south of Ft Meyers and could be as much as 15 ft well inland.
The next 24 - 36 hours will be pretty much the last opportunity for those concerned to make their final preparations. TS & Gale force winds along the the southwest FL coast can be expected as early as late Sunday evening.
Landfall will occur around sunrise Monday morning...
Br,
Patrick
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