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Bertram31.com General Bulletin Board
Hurricane Rita *LINK* *PIC*
Posted By: Capt Patrick McCrary
Date: Monday, 19 September 2005, at 7:27 p.m.
Obviously I don't draw a paycheck from NHC & my take on storms is just that: My Take... But weather in general & tropical systems in particular have, for many years, been a key focal point of mine. (Riding out my first hurricane, a mild one, on the surface & in a submarine back in '63.)
As opposed to most, who listen just to the local radio & TV stations, I try to dig up raw data, watch frontal movements, sea surface temps, moisture concentrations, etc. I try to draw my own conclusions, meld that to what NOAA & NHC have to say "Officially", and what the various computer models are predicting.
Usually "my take" really doesn't differ greatly from what the paid forecasters are offering up. But there have been several instances over the past years that my predictions were more on target than the big boys with all their big toys were touting.
Now with all that self ingrandizing out of the way...
"My Take" on Rita, and I hope that NHC proves me wrong, is that the possibility exists for it to be a near twin sister to Katrina. Very frightening words indeed... Again, I hope I'm wrong.
This is not, (yet), a NHC "Official Stance", but it won't catch me by surprise if it comes to pass.
Like Katrina, Rita is in a very similar environment and moving fast enough to stay in mid-80° water without dragging up cooler sub-surface water & very little upper level shearing throughout it's projected path.
Whether I'm right or wrong is not of consequence. The very real potential exists for Rita to be a Cat4 or 5 when it makes landfall Saturday morning. Where that will be is as uncertain as it always is this far in advance. Somewhere between Corpus Christi, TX & Houma, LA is about as accurate as it can be for now. Averages put it around Freeport to Galveston, TX.
Size wise, Rita is already showing signs of being large and will possibly continue to grow.
Everybody said last year, (myself included), that the odds of two hurricanes hitting the same general area & only a couple of weeks apart were too great to happen. Yeah right!
It makes the odds of Rita following Katrina in size & intensity seem more believable...
If you're in the danger cone at this time, make a game plan based on the worst case scenario. As always, your first line of defense is YOU. The further removed from you, the fewer defenses you have. If you over prepare and err in the direction of safety you've only lost a few hours & some bucks. Take a blasé attitude followed by a direct hit & you could end up keeping company with PE Wayne...
Let’s stay focused...
Br,
Patrick
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