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Bertram31.com General Bulletin Board
Tropical wave 92L *LINK* *PIC*
Posted By: Capt Patrick McCrary
Date: Friday, 2 September 2005, at 6:52 p.m.
Currently leaving Africa...
"...in a more favorable upper-level flow & mid-level airmass regime (particularly in the long-term), and already has some organization to it. The mid-level organization of the storm is more impressive than is the low-level organization at this point, but it appears as though a low-level circulation is getting organized somewhere in the neighborhood of 8-10N and 34-36W.
The pattern suggests this one will have a better chance of getting further west than the two ahead of it -- and moreso than most storms already this season -- and has a lot of model support. The GFS has been developing this one and taking it near or north of the Greater Antilles as a <980mb system (pretty good for that model), while the GFDL brings a near-category 5 hurricane to the northern islands in 5 days.
The other major global models generally agree on bringing a substantial feature (at least a TS) to the northern islands in the 5-6 day time span. Given the way the pattern is unfolding, the low latitude of the disturbance, and its current organization, this one has a chance.
Expect a tropical depression -- #15 -- out of this one at any point with development into a named system shortly thereafter. It likely won't go as far south as did Ivan last year and Emily this year, but likely will still be one to deal with for the next week to ten days."
Source: Florida Hurricane Center
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