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Bertram31.com General Bulletin Board
Forecast for Hurricane Season Gets Worse *LINK*
Posted By: Capt Patrick McCrary
Date: Monday, 11 July 2005, at 4:28 p.m.
Andre,
Thanks for sending this to me... Br, Patrick
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Forecast for Hurricane Season Gets WorseLONDON July 08 (BestWire) — As Hurricane Dennis barrels down on the Gulf of Mexico, London-based Tropical Storm Risk consortium said the factors for an above-average hurricane season have "significantly increased."
Tropical Storm Risk now predicts Atlantic basin and U.S.-landfalling hurricane activity will be about 200% more than average for 2005. In February, the group predicted 2005 hurricanes activity at a rate 155% more than average (BestWire, Feb. 16, 2005). This, according to the Tropical Storm Risk group, is the highest July forecast for activity since 1950.
The increase in activity, said Mark Saunders, TSR's lead scientist, is due to two factors:
— Sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic are expected to be 0.6 degrees Celsius warmer than normal, equaling the record value reached in 2004; and
— Trade wind speeds over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic have become weaker and more favorable for storms.
Saunders said the trade winds influence the spinning up of storms while water temperatures provide the heat and moisture needed to fuel storms.
"Following the ravages of 2004, the current and projected climate signals now suggest that we should prepare for another exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane season in 2005, a factor which underlines the ongoing need for vigilance on the part of governments and citizens alike," Saunders said in a statement.
Four major hurricanes struck the U.S. mainland in 2004, causing about $23 billion in insured losses.
TSR's forecast includes:
— A 97% chance of an above-normal season for this year, up from February's prediction of a 76% chance;
— 15 tropical storms, with nine being hurricanes and four being major hurricanes — those in categories 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale, which carry sustained winds of 111 mph or greater — up from February's forecast of 14 tropical storms, with eight being hurricanes and four major hurricanes;
— An 82% chance of above-normal U.S. hurricane activity reaching the coast, up from February's forecast of a 67% probability; and
— Five tropical storm strikes on the U.S., of which two will be hurricanes, up from February's forecast of four tropical storm strikes on the U.S., of which two will be hurricanes.
By comparison, the 2004 season saw 15 named storms, nine hurricanes and six intense hurricanes (BestWire, Dec. 6, 2004). The long-term average is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes a year.
There already have been four named storms, with one becoming a Category 4 hurricane, just five weeks into the hurricane season, which began June 1 and ends Nov. 30. The first named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Arlene, came ashore June 13 near Pensacola, Fla., with 60 mph winds and caused minor flooding (BestWire, June 13, 2005). The third named storm, Tropical Storm Cindy, brought heavy rain and winds of about 70 mph when it came ashore near New Orleans, La., and made its way northward through Mississippi and Alabama (BestWire, July 7, 2005).
Hurricane Dennis, as of July 8 a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 150 mph, is expected to make landfall on the U.S. mainland by Monday morning, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
"Dennis is the first Caribbean major hurricane on record to occur in July, and only the seventh major July hurricane to occur anywhere in the Atlantic since 1900," Saunders said. "It is a highly dangerous storm with the potential to cause severe damage and disruption."
About 200,000 people have been evacuated from Cuba, which lies in Dennis' path, according to Guy Carpenter & Co. Ltd.'s Catastrophe Information report. The storm, according to the CAT-i report, caused widespread damage in Jamaica and in Haiti, where five people have been reported killed. Florida has declared a state of emergency and has evacuated the Keys, which lie near the hurricane's projected path.
Tropical Storm Risk is cosponsored by Benfield, an independent reinsurance intermediary; Royal & Sun Alliance Insurance Group plc; and Crawford & Co., a global claims-management company. The consortium predicted the unusually active 2004 hurricane season.
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